News & insights


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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement

28 二月, 2024

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the line, keeping the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% and maintaining an Official Cash Rate outlook similar to its November forecasts.It appears the RBNZ now has a more balanced view on inflation pressures than its ultra-vigilant November statement and subsequent communications had led us to believe.

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New Zealand Labour Market Statistics, December Quarter 2023

07 二月, 2024

The New Zealand labour market modestly cooled in the December quarter but was stronger than the Reserve Bank and most economists expected.
The Reserve Bank is not likely to be comfortable with slow easing in labour market pressures. It will, therefore, likely maintain its vigilant monetary policy stance at its 28 February meeting.

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Consumer Price Index, December Quarter 2023

26 一月, 2024

Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 4.7% in the December 2023 quarter from 5.6% in the September quarter, in line with most economists’ predictions. Measures of underlying inflation also materially fell.

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Jarden 2024 Long-Term Return Assumptions

06 十二月, 2023

Interest rate rises in New Zealand and globally have led to an upgrade in the projected long-term returns for cash and debt securities. Steep rises in interest rates on longer-maturity securities in 2023 have led to significant increases in projected returns on New Zealand and global debt securities.

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement

01 十二月, 2023

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% but sent a more aggressive vibe through the Governor’s statement and the outlook presented in the Monetary Policy Statement. Surging inward migration is the main reason for the hawkish turn.

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate Review

04 十月, 2023

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% as mostly expected. The RBNZ’s statement kept to the script outlined in its August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which hints that no further OCR increases will be required.

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Pre-Election Fiscal and Economic Update

12 九月, 2023

The Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update shows a gradual improvement in the Government fiscal position, with a return to a surplus in 2026/27.

However, the outlook is weaker than the Treasury projected in the May Budget Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

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June Quarter Consumer Price Index

19 七月, 2023

June quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continued to decline on a quarterly and annual bases led by declines in airfares and petrol prices. However, food and housing-related price inflation remained high and underlying inflation has not budged.

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New Zealand Gross Domestic Product

16 六月, 2023

The New Zealand economy entered a technical recession in the March quarter, having recorded two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Nevertheless, the environment will likely continue to be challenging in the near-term as higher mortgage interest rates bite and job losses occur.

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Budget 2023

19 五月, 2023

The Budget has a little more relish than the “Bread and Butter” affair suggested by the Minister of Finance beforehand. Aside from significant extra funding for health and education, cost-of-living, cyclone relief, and science and innovation were the main targets for extra funds.

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Labour Market Statistics, March Quarter 2023

03 五月, 2023

The New Zealand labour market continued to look tight in the March quarter, with low unemployment, decent job growth, and strong wage growth. There was a glimpse of cooling, however, with a modest decline in hours worked and slight deceleration in wage growth.

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Inflation and government debt under the microscope

05 十二月, 2022

For much of the last decade, most developed country governments were able to either reduce or keep stable the level of government debt relative to the size of their economies as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). The key exception being Japan. However, the huge increase in government spending in response to the pandemic caused the level of debt in many countries to increase substantially.

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US dollar steam train

30 十一月, 2022

One of the most notable trends in global financial markets since May 2021 has been a strengthening in the US dollar against other major currencies. The US Dollar Index, which shows the US dollar’s value against a broad basket of currencies, was up around 11 per cent in the year to 25 November.

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Carbon market explainer

23 十一月, 2022

New Zealand's carbon market is growing in popularity as its economy edges closer to decarbonisation targets. In this video, Jarden's Head of commodities Nigel Brunel explains how carbon units are traded and the purpose of the emissions trading scheme.

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NZ labour market: Still hot

02 十一月, 2022

The New Zealand labour market continued to run hot in the September quarter, with employment growth picking up, the unemployment rate remaining at a historically low 3.3%, and wage growth accelerating.

Housing

Implications of a housing downturn

20 十月, 2022

Significant economic stimulus, in particular lower interest rates, ignited activity in the housing sector (both in new builds and renovations), creating huge demand for building materials. While construction demand has not yet slowed, the share prices of companies supplying building materials have.

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NZX Top 50 third quarter review

14 十月, 2022

The NZX Top 50 index was one of few share markets globally to make a gain in the third quarter, which Director of Equity Research, Adrian Allbon, puts down to defensive, dividend-paying stocks and those benefitting from economies reopening.

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Evidence of easing

23 九月, 2022

The global economy is under pressure due to rapid increases in the cost of living, however our Investment Strategist and Economist, John Carran, is seeing evidence of inflation easing.

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New Blog Post

15 九月, 2022

Headline growth in NZ’s June quarter GDP surprised the majority of the market, however underlying weakness in the domestic economy is unlikely to alter the path for rate hikes in the near-term.

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NZX reporting season wrap

09 九月, 2022

The NZX Top 50 index gained almost 1 per cent in August as listed companies provided updates to the market. Our Director of Equity Research, Adrian Allbon, says as the parameters of uncertainty are becoming better understood, some companies are looking at capital management and providing guidance to investors.

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ASX reporting season wrap

05 九月, 2022

Australian listed companies have shown they're in good shape this reporting season, but they now face uncharted territory with rising costs making guidance for investors difficult, according to our Head of Research in Australia, Ben Gilbert. Watch him discuss the season just-ended in this video.

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Mid-year market update

12 七月, 2022

It’s been a tough start to 2022 for markets, as inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical conflict weigh on investor sentiment. While global equities have largely lost the strong gains made last year, they’re still trading at pre-pandemic levels.

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Scam alert

01 七月, 2022

We are aware that a fraudulent website is using elements of Jarden and OMF’s brand as part of a cryptocurrency scam.

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Navigating market volatility

17 六月, 2022

Global share markets are struggling to gain strength, as the benchmark S&P500 index falls more than 20 per cent from its highs into bear market territory, adding to this year’s ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

 

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State of the Australian economy

08 六月, 2022

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate rise, Jarden expects the cash rate to reach 2.5 per cent by the end of this year, adding to pressure on households and weighing on national economic growth.

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State of the New Zealand economy

01 六月, 2022

The economic climate looks to be cooling in New Zealand, as wages don’t appear to be keeping up with the pace of inflation. Jarden Economist and Investment Strategist John Carran explains the potential economic headwinds ahead.

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Budget 2022: Spending up large

19 五月, 2022

The Budget delivered significant extra spending over coming years, which had already been signalled by the Government in the amounts it had pencilled in for new initiatives.

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CPI update: Lower than expected inflation

21 四月, 2022

CPI inflation in the March quarter 2022 accelerated to 1.8% while annual inflation also accelerated, to 6.9%. However, the outcome was a little lower than most were expecting. Hence, the New Zealand dollar and local wholesale interest rates fell moderately.

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The impact of rising rates

14 四月, 2022

With rates expected to rise further in Australia and New Zealand, Jarden's Chief Economist Carlos Cacho and Director of Equity Research Adrian Allbon analyse the impact it could have on households and company earnings.
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RBNZ Monetary Policy Review: Quelling expectations

13 四月, 2022

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided at its monetary policy review today to take a more forceful front-loaded approach to getting on top of burgeoning inflation. Its decision to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.5% to 1.5% aims to more quickly quell peoples’ inflation expectations and give more future OCR options.

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Oil price forecast and impact

11 三月, 2022

Jarden forecasts sanctions on Russian oil supply to push the price of Brent crude to an average of US$100 per barrel in 2022, contributing up to 3 per cent to New Zealand's March quarter inflation print.

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The Metaverse – Overhyped?

02 三月, 2022

As many major technology growth stocks experienced significant share price declines during the latest US reporting season, many commentators and analysts were taken by surprise. Not necessarily by the downwards movement, but by the extent of it.

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RBNZ OCR decision: Hawkish…for now

23 二月, 2022

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.25 per cent to 1.0 per cent, as expected. However, signals from the MPC meeting minutes and the forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement struck a markedly less accommodative tone.

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Tightening labour market but spiralling wage fears tempered

02 二月, 2022

The New Zealand labour market continued to tighten in the December quarter 2021, although not to the extent that some expected. There does not appear to be anything that would cause a sea-change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) near-term Official Cash Rate (OCR) plans.

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A challenging year for NZ capital markets: What factors should investors consider for the year ahead?

30 十二月, 2022

It was a tougher year for the NZX 50 index in 2021, with it delivering -2.5 per cent total shareholder return (as at 21 December 2021) and underperforming offshore peer markets. Although this does come after a period of relatively high gains and there are a few elements at play behind the headline figure.

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Powering New Zealand: 100 per cent renewables target within reach

12 十月, 2021

Power generation is sometimes regarded as slow to adapt - a traditional value-driven market. While we’ve always contended New Zealand’s market is far more dynamic than that description suggests, our forecasts had still regarded 100 per cent renewable electricity outcomes as unlikely. Fast-forward three years and that view has been changed by some key developments, driving an environment of change.