New Zealand GDP, December 2023 Quarter
Double-DippingSummary With a mild contraction in the September and December quarters, the New Zealand economy entered a double-dip recession.
Double-DippingSummary With a mild contraction in the September and December quarters, the New Zealand economy entered a double-dip recession.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the line, keeping the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% and maintaining an Official Cash Rate outlook similar to its November forecasts.It appears the RBNZ now has a more balanced view on inflation pressures than its ultra-vigilant November statement and subsequent communications had led us to believe.
Jarden is a leading trans-Tasman full-service investment bank providing advisory, risk and capital solutions to some of Australasia’s highest performing companies.
The New Zealand labour market modestly cooled in the December quarter but was stronger than the Reserve Bank and most economists expected.
The Reserve Bank is not likely to be comfortable with slow easing in labour market pressures. It will, therefore, likely maintain its vigilant monetary policy stance at its 28 February meeting.
Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 4.7% in the December 2023 quarter from 5.6% in the September quarter, in line with most economists’ predictions. Measures of underlying inflation also materially fell.
Jarden and NAB have today signed an agreement to combine wealth advice and asset management businesses in New Zealand. The new entity called FirstCape will be formed during 2024 with Jarden, NAB and Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) as shareholders.
Interest rate rises in New Zealand and globally have led to an upgrade in the projected long-term returns for cash and debt securities. Steep rises in interest rates on longer-maturity securities in 2023 have led to significant increases in projected returns on New Zealand and global debt securities.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% but sent a more aggressive vibe through the Governor’s statement and the outlook presented in the Monetary Policy Statement. Surging inward migration is the main reason for the hawkish turn.
Since 1961, Jarden has been dedicated to growing connections between charities, not for profits, and their financial futures. What sets us apart is our deep expertise and steadfast commitment to the people and organisations we partner with.
September quarter CPI inflation offered a welcome surprise, coming in more subdued than the Reserve Bank and most economists predicted. There are clear signs underlying inflation is easing.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% as mostly expected. The RBNZ’s statement kept to the script outlined in its August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which hints that no further OCR increases will be required.
June quarter GDP growth surprised substantially to the upside and revisions to previous quarters caused the earlier technical recession to disappear. The bright spots in the quarter include robust exports and resilient consumption.
The Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update shows a gradual improvement in the Government fiscal position, with a return to a surplus in 2026/27.
However, the outlook is weaker than the Treasury projected in the May Budget Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its relatively restrictive monetary policy stance in its OCR announcement today. It indicates the OCR is likely to stay at its current rate until the beginning of 2025.
The Consumer Price Index for June has been released, and although inflation is down to 6.0% from 6.7% in the March quarter, I’m not sure there will be much champagne flowing in the RBNZ’s offices.
Moderating pressuresSummary While labour market pressures persist, heat is slowly dissipating. Encouragingly for the inflation outlook, we may have seen the peak of very rapid wage growth.
June quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continued to decline on a quarterly and annual bases led by declines in airfares and petrol prices. However, food and housing-related price inflation remained high and underlying inflation has not budged.
The New Zealand economy entered a technical recession in the March quarter, having recorded two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Nevertheless, the environment will likely continue to be challenging in the near-term as higher mortgage interest rates bite and job losses occur.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised markets by forecasting a lower Official Cash Rate (OCR) than previously expected. It has signalled it is now in watch and wait mode.
The Budget has a little more relish than the “Bread and Butter” affair suggested by the Minister of Finance beforehand. Aside from significant extra funding for health and education, cost-of-living, cyclone relief, and science and innovation were the main targets for extra funds.
The New Zealand labour market continued to look tight in the March quarter, with low unemployment, decent job growth, and strong wage growth. There was a glimpse of cooling, however, with a modest decline in hours worked and slight deceleration in wage growth.
Moving in the right direction Summary Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation surprised to the downside, mainly due to lower-than-expected tradables inflation.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stuck to its previous script, with a vigilant stance on inflation.
The labour market shows glimpses of cooling. We expect more heat to dissipate in coming quarters as the New Zealand economy slows.
The ripples of the pandemic and recent relaxation of restrictions continue to reverberate through the global economy and cloud the outlook.
While we see potential improvements in inflation, we also observe economies around the world flirting with recession.
As we close out 2022 and move into the new year, we expect to see an increased focus on company specific fundamentals, which include its revenue growth, profitability and debt levels.
For much of the last decade, most developed country governments were able to either reduce or keep stable the level of government debt relative to the size of their economies as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). The key exception being Japan. However, the huge increase in government spending in response to the pandemic caused the level of debt in many countries to increase substantially.
One of the most notable trends in global financial markets since May 2021 has been a strengthening in the US dollar against other major currencies. The US Dollar Index, which shows the US dollar’s value against a broad basket of currencies, was up around 11 per cent in the year to 25 November.
Today’s uber hawkish 75 basis point Official Cash Rate increase and Monetary Policy Statement are intended to quickly quell inflation and further restore the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation-fighting credentials.
New Zealand's carbon market is growing in popularity as its economy edges closer to decarbonisation targets. In this video, Jarden's Head of commodities Nigel Brunel explains how carbon units are traded and the purpose of the emissions trading scheme.
Investors in US tech stocks could be running out of patience, as scrutiny of spending becomes apparent following third quarter earnings reports.
The New Zealand labour market continued to run hot in the September quarter, with employment growth picking up, the unemployment rate remaining at a historically low 3.3%, and wage growth accelerating.
As the economic cycle matures and the operating environment becomes more challenging, investors may look for quality companies that could compound investment returns over time.
Jarden is pleased to share an update that our current performance means we will now reach our 2026 ambitions somewhere between 2022 and 2024.
Significant economic stimulus, in particular lower interest rates, ignited activity in the housing sector (both in new builds and renovations), creating huge demand for building materials. While construction demand has not yet slowed, the share prices of companies supplying building materials have.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the September quarter blasted prior expectations, with a meaty quarterly rise of 2.2 per cent and annual inflation at 7.2 per cent.
The NZX Top 50 index was one of few share markets globally to make a gain in the third quarter, which Director of Equity Research, Adrian Allbon, puts down to defensive, dividend-paying stocks and those benefitting from economies reopening.
In a landscape where some growth-oriented tech stocks are coming under increased pressure, cybersecurity remains a service of necessity.
Director of Equity Research, Grant Swanepoel, expects New Zealand's national median house price to fall another 12 per cent from its peak, at a faster rate than initially forecast, before bottoming out in March 2023.
New Zealanders are feeling the pinch and the economy is showing underlying signs of cooling, according to our Economist and Investment Strategist, John Carran.
The global economy is under pressure due to rapid increases in the cost of living, however our Investment Strategist and Economist, John Carran, is seeing evidence of inflation easing.
Headline growth in NZ’s June quarter GDP surprised the majority of the market, however underlying weakness in the domestic economy is unlikely to alter the path for rate hikes in the near-term.
In this latest episode of the 'State of the Economy' series, Jarden Australia Chief Economist, Carlos Cacho, discusses when higher costs could impact Australian households.
The NZX Top 50 index gained almost 1 per cent in August as listed companies provided updates to the market. Our Director of Equity Research, Adrian Allbon, says as the parameters of uncertainty are becoming better understood, some companies are looking at capital management and providing guidance to investors.
Australian listed companies have shown they're in good shape this reporting season, but they now face uncharted territory with rising costs making guidance for investors difficult, according to our Head of Research in Australia, Ben Gilbert. Watch him discuss the season just-ended in this video.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.5 per cent to 3.0 per cent, as most expected.
With many US companies having now reported, we summarise three key factors that may help us glean insight into the possible direction from here for the US equity market.
The labour market loosened just a little in the June 2022 quarter, but wage growth remains hot. This may change later in the year if the labour market softens further, as we expect.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the June quarter came in hotter than many expected, with the quarterly rise at 1.7 per cent and annual inflation at 7.3 per cent.
It’s been a tough start to 2022 for markets, as inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical conflict weigh on investor sentiment. While global equities have largely lost the strong gains made last year, they’re still trading at pre-pandemic levels.
Electricity generation companies are spending billions on renewable energy infrastructure in New Zealand, encouraged by incentives to meet the global shift towards decarbonisation.
We are aware that a fraudulent website is using elements of Jarden and OMF’s brand as part of a cryptocurrency scam.
Global share markets are struggling to gain strength, as the benchmark S&P500 index falls more than 20 per cent from its highs into bear market territory, adding to this year’s ongoing volatility and uncertainty.
The price of bonds is tumbling and yields are surging, as the market prices in further interest rate hikes.
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate rise, Jarden expects the cash rate to reach 2.5 per cent by the end of this year, adding to pressure on households and weighing on national economic growth.
Jarden is forecasting an 18 per cent fall in New Zealand’s median house price by the end of 2023, as mortgage rates rise, and builders remain at capacity.
Netflix has dominated online streaming services since 2007. However, it is being challenged as more competitors emerge.
The latest NZX reporting season showed encouraging signs of growth for some companies, however increases in interest rates are adding to pressure on equities.
As broadly expected, the RBNZ raised the OCR a further 0.5 per cent taking it to 2.0 per cent, its highest level since 2016. This continues the RBNZ’s aggressive monetary policy approach as it seeks to get on top of the highest inflation in a generation.
The Budget delivered significant extra spending over coming years, which had already been signalled by the Government in the amounts it had pencilled in for new initiatives.
As Jarden continues to build-out its senior advisory capability, we are delighted to announce the appointment of Silvana Schenone as Managing Director and Co-Head of Investment Banking New Zealand alongside Sam Ricketts.
Companies reporting in May make up around a third of the NZX 50 by market capitalisation, with mostly full-year results to 31 March 2022.
Fonterra’s proposed changes to its capital structure could significantly reduce dairy farmer supplier investment in the co-operative.
Annual inflation climbed to 6.9 per cent in New Zealand during the first quarter of 2022 – a 30-year high – with a substantial proportion triggered by clogged global supply chains.
Jarden analysts expect supply chain problems could unwind decades worth of globalisation, as companies are forced to rethink how to remain reliable for consumers.
CPI inflation in the March quarter 2022 accelerated to 1.8% while annual inflation also accelerated, to 6.9%. However, the outcome was a little lower than most were expecting. Hence, the New Zealand dollar and local wholesale interest rates fell moderately.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided at its monetary policy review today to take a more forceful front-loaded approach to getting on top of burgeoning inflation. Its decision to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.5% to 1.5% aims to more quickly quell peoples’ inflation expectations and give more future OCR options.
Balancing oil supply and demand has always been delicate, and even more so with increasing economic activity and easing pandemic restrictions over the last few months.
One of the most disruptive impacts of pandemic-induced global supply chain shortages has been from semiconductor chips. Used in the fabrication of integrated circuits, chips are critical to the production of automobiles, graphics cards, game consoles, computers, and a plethora of other products.
Jarden forecasts sanctions on Russian oil supply to push the price of Brent crude to an average of US$100 per barrel in 2022, contributing up to 3 per cent to New Zealand's March quarter inflation print.
The price of grains and metals produced in Russia and Ukraine are seeing volatile price surges, over supply disruption fears. Jarden Head of Derivatives Mike McIntyre says other countries could ramp up production, but food shortages are still possible.
Balance sheets and earnings showed surprising strength, but there’s caution over incoming cost pressures, says Jarden Head of Research Arie Dekker.
As many major technology growth stocks experienced significant share price declines during the latest US reporting season, many commentators and analysts were taken by surprise. Not necessarily by the downwards movement, but by the extent of it.
Quality companies conquer but inflation infiltrates outlooks, says Jarden Australia's Head of Research Ben Gilbert.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.25 per cent to 1.0 per cent, as expected. However, signals from the MPC meeting minutes and the forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement struck a markedly less accommodative tone.
The New Zealand economy is running hot, with high inflation, a tight labour market, and steadily rising wages. There is little doubt, therefore, that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) when it meets on Wednesday.
Jarden is pleased to announce the next phase in its vision to build a leading Australasian financial services business.
One week into New Zealand's company reporting season, Jarden senior analyst Grant Swanepoel tells Jarden Head of Content Madison Reidy what's surprised him so far.
Looking ahead to February reporting season, we continue to expect solid earnings delivery from stocks with limited exposure to COVID-19 disruption that are aligned to a strong domestic economy.
The New Zealand labour market continued to tighten in the December quarter 2021, although not to the extent that some expected. There does not appear to be anything that would cause a sea-change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) near-term Official Cash Rate (OCR) plans.
Annual consumer inflation surged to 5.9 per cent in the December quarter 2021, which is the highest it has been for 31 years. Measures of underlying inflation have also increased markedly, with trimmed mean measures ranging from 4.3 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
Markets have been a whole new ball game for investors over the past two years. When Covid-19 first emerged, we saw extreme volatility around equities and other financial assets.
It was a tougher year for the NZX 50 index in 2021, with it delivering -2.5 per cent total shareholder return (as at 21 December 2021) and underperforming offshore peer markets. Although this does come after a period of relatively high gains and there are a few elements at play behind the headline figure.
Restrictions by countries around the world to control the spread of the pandemic have hindered the production, storage, and transportation of goods, resulting in order backlogs and lengthy delivery delays.
After the first Covid-19 lockdown in 2020, there was a massive economic resurgence and prices took off.
Inflation is here and likely to be more persistent than originally expected. It’s currently driven by supply chain bottlenecks, energy shortages, labour shortages and strong consumer demand.
Decarbonisation will help alleviate further global temperature rises, and their effects. We can reduce our personal carbon footprint through the products and services we use, and by encouraging individuals and companies to do the same.
Power generation is sometimes regarded as slow to adapt - a traditional value-driven market. While we’ve always contended New Zealand’s market is far more dynamic than that description suggests, our forecasts had still regarded 100 per cent renewable electricity outcomes as unlikely. Fast-forward three years and that view has been changed by some key developments, driving an environment of change.
Tesla has first mover advantage but there will also be other winners. Impediments to EV ownership are fading and the benefits are increasing.
The New Zealand market has seen strong performance across a broad range of New Zealand growth stocks over the past five years.
There are many forces at play when investing in markets, but few have as much impact as interest rates.
One of the great governmental successes of the past 30 years has been the virtual annihilation of Consumer Price Inflation as a source of economic instability and the consequent reduction in borrowing costs for billions of people around the world.
Jarden is delighted to announce the appointment of Dawie Olivier as Chief Technology Officer.
Interest rate reductions are all about bringing demand forward. That is the core purpose of central bank rate cuts.
Across Australia and New Zealand there are a number of large capitalisation healthcare companies that have delivered strong and consistent valuation growth over the last ten years including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Ryman Healthcare, CSL, Cochlear and Ramsay Healthcare.
Jarden, leading investment and advisory firm, and Nomura, Asia’s global investment bank, today announced they have entered into a strategic alliance in Australia and New Zealand.
Today, we’re delighted to further expand our services on both sides of the Tasman – with the completed integration of OMF & OMF Markets into our firm.
In the first half of 2020, capital raises were largely focused on balance sheet strengthening as a result of Covid-19.
December Quarter Labour Market Statistics show that the New Zealand workforce has coped remarkedly well with lockdowns and closed borders due to the global pandemic. Overall employment rose 0.
Today Jarden is thrilled to welcome five new senior hires to the group as we look to invest further into providing leading services to our clients in Wealth & Asset…
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